000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU JUN 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 07N ALONG 80W...BUT IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING CONVECTION ONLY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM SE MEXICO JUST W OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION NEAR 16N96W SW TO 09N98W MOVING W WITHIN THE RANGE OF 10- 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST S OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 97W-101W. THE UW-CIMSS TPW IMAGERY PRODUCT DEPICTS DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED JUST S OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 97W-101W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER IT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 10N86W...AND EXTENDS SW TO 09N99W TO 06N116W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 05N118W TO 01N132W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 110W-115W...AND FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 97W-101W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 101W-108W 108W...AND BETWEEN 110W-115W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 89W-91W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE AND NEARLY STATIONARY LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED 28N122W...AS A MUCH SMALLER ONE IS TO ITS S AT 17N116W. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT TO THE N OF 19N BETWEEN 110W-140W. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO BE PRESENT N OF 17N AND BETWEEN 120W-140W...AND ALSO N OF 20N E OF 120W. DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD WITH THE SLY FLOW OCCURRING TO THE S OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THIS MOISTURE CONSISTS OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 10N1-17N BETWEEN 114W-132W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NW MEXICO SW TO TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SW TO NEAR 23N118W. A SMALL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO AT 21N102W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 19N110W. THE UPPER FLOW IS NORTHERLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BETWEEN ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO AND A BROAD UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST NE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING DEBRIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS...FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER THE GULF TEHUANTEPEC...S TO NEAR 10N AND E OF 98W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N138W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N130W AND TO NEAR 25N120W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY MODERATE NE-E TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N-15N W OF 137W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 116W/117W FROM 06N-10N. ISOLATED WEAK TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH IS ALONG 131W FROM 12N-16N WITH SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM TO ITS W. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 37N133W IN 24 HOURS WHILE SLIGHTLY INTENSIFYING WITH LITTLE IF ANY INFLUENCE ON THE PRESENT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED RELATIVELY LOW SEA STATE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION W OF ABOUT 120W WHERE HIGHER SEA STATE OF 8-9 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS WHERE HIGHLIGHTED. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SE SWELLS MIXED WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS ARE PRODUCING IN AN AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS S OF 02N BETWEEN 100W AND 112W. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY BY 48 HOURS WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN SW SWELLS EXPECTED S OF A LINE FROM 01N129W TO 04N117W TO 08N96W AT THAT TIME. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT NE 20-25 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES WITH THE WESTERLY EXTENT REACHING NEAR 10N92W WITH THE FIRST PULSE FORECAST TO START UP LATE TONIGHT. THE RESULTANT ENE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE W AND MIX WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT ALONG A SWATCH FROM 08.5N-11.5N BETWEEN 88W-104W BY 24 HOURS...AND FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 86W-107W IN 48 HOURS. $$ AGUIRRE