000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180324 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JUN 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W N OF 09N TO INLAND THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE UW-CIMSS TPW IMAGERY PRODUCT SHOWS DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE...HOWEVER ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-11N. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N108W TO 05N109W MOVING W AT 16 KT. THE UW-CIMSS TPW IMAGERY PRODUCT DEPICTS DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE BETWEEN 106W-113W AND S TO THE ITCZ. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MOISTURE MATCHES VERY WELL WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION THAT ARE NOTED FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 107W-112W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT UPPER DIFFLUENCE NOTED WITHIN THE VICINITY IF THE WAVE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 08N93W. THE ITCZ THEN EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 07N110W TO 05N119W TO 03N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 82W-85W...AND ALSO S OF TROUGH WITHIN 45 NM OF 04N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 180 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 107W-112W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 120W- 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING S OF ITCZ IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 03N119W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 132W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS...DUAL ANTICYCLONES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FEATURES OVER THE AREA WITH THE FIRST ONE AT 26N129W AND THE SECOND ONE TO ITS NE AT 29N121W. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT TO THE N OF 19N BETWEEN 120W-140W. THESE FEATURES ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO BE PRESENT N OF 14N AND BETWEEN 120W- 140W...AND ALSO N OF 20N E OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NW MEXICO AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO OVER THE NE PORTION TO NEAR 22N120W. A SMALL ANTICYCLONE GRADUALLY SLIDING SW IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR 20N108W. RESIDUAL UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM WHAT EARLIER WAS THE REMNANT LOW OF CARLOS IS ADVECTING WESTWARD WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE ANTICYCLONE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD WESTWARD EXTENDING RIDGE THAT REACHES FROM NORTHERN S AMERICA TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 04N-10N IS HELPING TO KEEP DEEP CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION TO THE SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 82W- 85W AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N133W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N130W AND TO NEAR 22N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY MODERATE NE-E TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N-15N W OF 132W. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW TO A POSITION NEAR 36N136W IN 24 HOURS WHILE SLIGHTLY INTENSIFYING WITH LITTLE IF ANY INFLUENCE ON THE PRESENT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED RELATIVELY LOW SEA STATE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION W OF ABOUT 115W WHERE HIGH SEA STATE OF 8-10 FT IN SE SWELLS WHERE CAPTURES. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. A SET OF SE SWELLS...MIXED WITH LONG PERIOD SW SWELLS CROSSING THE EQUATOR IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS AS MENTIONED ABOVE S OF A LINE FROM 03.4S95W TO 03N106W TO 00N130W. THIS AREA OF SWELLS WILL SPREAD N TO NEAR 02N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W BY 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN DIMINISH TO 15- 20 KT BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT...AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF INSTANCES OF 9 FT WITH THESE WINDS. $$ AGUIRRE