000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171533 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM CARLOS IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO. IT IS CENTERED NEAR 19.6N 105.3W AT 17/1500 UTC MOVING N-NW OR 330 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAS RAPIDLY DECREASED TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. CARLOS IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT AND A REMNANT LOW BY THU MORNING AS IT MOVES JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. CARLOS IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE MARIAS ISLANDS AS A REMNANT LOW BY THU EVENING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 8N ALONG 94W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 89W AND 96W. THIS WAVE IS REFLECTED IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N105W TO 05N106W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP AS A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE ON THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N95W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N95W TO 06N105W TO 02N120W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 115W...AND S OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 128W. IN ADDITION...A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 80W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE ANTICYCLONE COVERS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N W OF 120W WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE AT 25N128W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NW MEXICO AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE NE WATERS TO NEAR 22N120W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 110W. A SMALL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS LOCATED W-NW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS NEAR 19N108W. A RIDGE OVER THE FAR E PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION IS HELPING TO INDUCE THE CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB CENTERED NEAR 38N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 30N130W AND TO NEAR 22N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N-15N W OF 130W. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE SW TO A POSITION NEAR 34N137W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS. AN ALTIMETER PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 8-10 FT WITHIN THE AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS IN MIXED WIND WAVES AND SE SWELL. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. A SET OF SE SWELLS...MIXED WITH LONG PERIOD SW SWELLS CROSSING THE EQUATOR IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS S OF A LINE FROM 03.4S95W TO 03N105W TO 00N132W. THIS AREA OF SWELLS WILL SPREAD N TO NEAR 02N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W BY 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT...AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 9 FT WITH THESE WINDS. $$ GR