000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170856
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED JUN 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS IS CENTERED NEAR 19.0N 104.8W AT 0900 UTC 
MOVING NW OR 300 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT 
GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY 
DISSIPATING. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM ACROSS THE E SEMICIRCLE. CARLOS IS A SMALL 
CYCLONE...AND IS FORECAST MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND 
BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE FRI. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 8N ALONG 92W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE..

A TROPICAL WAVE WAVE DISSECTS THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 11N104W TO 
05N106W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. 
  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 6N94W. ITCZ FROM 6N94W 6N104W TO 
2N120W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM N 
OF AXIS FROM 105W-114W.

...DISCUSSION... 

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 13N136W 
WITH TROUGH TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 5N125W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NE OF THE TROUGH WITH TWO ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION ONE NEAR 24N128 AND ANOTHER AT 28N121W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 21N120W SEPARATES 
THE FIRST ANTICYCLONE TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONES CIRCULATION 
CENTERED AT 19N108W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 110W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS SE INTO THE AREA NEAR 
32N132W TO 20N114W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE 
TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ TO 16N 
AND W OF 130W. SE SWELL TO 8 FT IS FROM 10N-16N W OF 131W WILL 
SUBSIDE TO BEL0W 8 FT THU NIGHT.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL 
REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS TO 8 FT S OF 1N BETWEEN 100W-120W 
WILL INCREASE TO 8-10 FT LATER TODAY S OF 4N BETWEEN 98W-120W.

ELY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE 
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS THU AFTERNOON.

$$
DGS