000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170304 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE CARLOS IS CENTERED NEAR 18.2N 104.5W AT 17/0300 UTC MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION OBSERVED JUST A FEW HOURS AGO IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. CARLOS IS A SMALL CYCLONE...AND IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY WEAKEN THROUGH WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO...MICHOACAN... COLIMA...JALISCO...NAYARIT...DURANGO AND SINALOA WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THU MORNING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W N OF 08N TO ACROSS EASTERN GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM W OF WAVE FROM 08N-09N. A TROPICAL WAVE WAVE DISSECTS THE ITCZ ALONG AN AXIS FROM 11N101W TO 04N102W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE FROM 04N-09N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N95W...THEN ITCZ TO 07N102W TO 02N114W TO 03N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 87W-89W...AND FROM WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 106W-110W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE ANTICYCLONE COVERS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 115W-138W WITH THE CULPRIT NEARLY STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE AT 24N128W. AS A RESULT... MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE NOTED WITHIN THIS AREA. A SMALL ANTICYCLONE IS NW OF HURRICANE CARLOS AT 20N106W. THE FLOW AROUND THIS ANTICYCLONE IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS WESTWARD TO NEAR 109W FROM 15N-19N. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES OF 1025 MB CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 41N134W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N130W AND TO NEAR 22N123W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 126W-132W AND FROM 13N-17N W OF 132W BASED ON THE 1826 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FAR SW WATERS WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT PRESENT S OF 04N W OF 120W...AND ALSO S OF 01N BETWEEN 90W-120W. THIS AREA OF SE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN AREAL SIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE AREA AT THAT TIME FORECAST TO BE SITUATED S OF 08N BETWEEN 120W-128W...AND S OF 02N W OF 128W. A SECOND SET OF SE SWELLS...MIXED WITH LONG PERIOD SW SWELLS CROSSING THE EQUATOR WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS S OF 08N BETWEEN 97W-120W BY 24 HOURS...AND SPREAD N TO NEAR 13N BETWEEN 97W-120W BY 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT...AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT DURING THE 20-25 KT WIND EPISODES. $$ AGUIRRE