000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

HURRICANE CARLOS CENTERED NEAR 17.5N 104.3W AT 16/1500 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT 
GUSTS 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 989 MB. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 
18N BETWEEN 103W AND 105W. CARLOS REMAINS A SMALL SYSTEM AND IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A W-NW TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. CARLOS IS 
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF 
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...JALISCO...NAYARIT...DURANGO AND SINALOA 
WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH 
THU MORNING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE ALSO 
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS 
AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SWELLS 
ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST OF 
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD 
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF BELIZE ACROSS NORTHERN 
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EPAC TO 10N88W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AROUND 180 NM W OF ITS AXIS 
FROM 10N TO 12N. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS NEAR 100W 
FROM 03N TO 11N MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT OVER THE LAST 24 
HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
03N TO 09N BETWEEN FROM 92W AND 108W BEING SUPPORTED BY A BULGE 
OF MOISTURE IN THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 05N99W THEN CONTINUES FROM 
04N103W TO 02N118W TO 03N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08W BETWEEN 99W AND 107W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 05N W OF 135W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 
41N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N130W EXTENDING 
TO 22N116W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N TO 
20N W OF 130W BASED ON LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. IN ADDITION 
THE MOST RECENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATE SEAS TO 8 FT IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THESE WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN 
WEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
AT 20 KT OR LESS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE FAR SW WATERS 
WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT COVERING THE AREA S OF 06N W OF 130W. 
THIS AREA OF SEAS TO 8 FT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
TO S OF 01N W OF 137W.  A SECOND SET OF SE SWELLS...MIXED WITH 
LONG PERIOD SW SWELLS CROSSING THE EQUATOR WILL RESULT IN AN 
AREA OF SEAS TO 10 FT S OF 02N BETWEEN 94W AND 120W. 

GAP WINDS...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 25 KT DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL FALL TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE 
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL BUILD AROUND 8 FT 
DURING THIS PERIOD.  

$$
NR/GR