000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160856
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

HURRICANE CARLOS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 103.9W AT 0900 UTC MOVING 
WNW OR 290 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 989 MB. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 103W AND 105W. CARLOS REMAINS A SMALL 
SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A W-NW TRACK OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS...MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. LOCALLY HEAVY 
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF 
MEXICO...FROM WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN TO 
JALISCO...THROUGH TUE. REFER TO LOCAL FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS 
FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. VERY ROUGH SEAS AND 
STORM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NEAR 
AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN AND GRADUALLY 
SHIFT NW WITH CARLOS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES 
AND SWELLS WILL CAUSE LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND 
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IN THE SURF ZONE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 7N92W TO 2N105W TO 3N118W THEN CONTINUES FROM 9123W TO 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIONFROM 2N-08W TO 
BETWEEN 99W-107W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 16N135W 
WITH TROUGH TO 4N125W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH 
WITH TWO ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ONE NEAR 23N126N AND ANOTHER 
AT 19N108W. STRONG SUBSTANCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 10N W OF 110W...EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM E OF 
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CARLOS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS SE INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N132W TO 
16N114W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND 
W OF 125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE FAR SW PORTION 
F THE AREA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT COVERING THE AREA S OF 04N W OF 
130W. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 8 FT LATE 
MON. A SECOND SET OF SE SWELLS...MIXED WITH SE AND SW SWELLS 
WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR LATER TODAY...AND BY WED EVENING SEAS 8 
FT OR GREATER WILL COVER THE AREA S OF 03N BETWEEN 96W AND 120W.

$$
DGS