000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150234
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC MON JUN 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 101.3W AT 0300 UTC 
MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT 
GUSTS 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 988 MB. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM E AND 45 NM W 
SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF 14N BETWEEN 99W AND 104W. CARLOS IS 
EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH MONDAY. THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE THROUGH 
TUE...RUNNING GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF GUERRERO AND 
MICHOACAN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER 
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...PRIMARILY ACROSS 
GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN 
SPREAD FARTHER N ACROSS MICHOACAN AND JALISCO MONDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH TUESDAY. VERY ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS AND STORM SWELLS 
ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS WILL AFFECT THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS 
FROM THE WATERS OF GUERRERO TO THE WATERS OF MICHOACAN AND 
GRADUALLY SHIFT NW WITH CARLOS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THESE WAVES AND SWELLS WILL CAUSE LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF 
CONDITIONS AND PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IN THE SURF 
ZONE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N108W TO 05N120W TO 07N135W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
75 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN WITHIN 60 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 
112W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
300 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1033 MB CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
52N162W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO THE AREA FROM 30N139W TO 
16N111W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND 
W OF 128W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS. 

NORTHERLY SWELLS THAT AFFECTED THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS HAVE 
SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT THIS EVENING. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS 
WITH SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST WATERS S 
OF 02N BETWEEN 124W AND 138W. THE SWELL WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COVER THE WATERS S OF 02N BETWEEN 
132W AND 140W BY TUE EVENING. 

$$
AL