000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142109
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 100.9W AT 2100 UTC 
MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT 
GUSTS 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 986 MB. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM E AND 60 NM W 
SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. CARLOS 
IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TONIGHT. 
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE 
THROUGH TUE...RUNNING GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF 
GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO 
SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...PRIMARILY 
ACROSS OAXACA...GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...AND THEN SPREAD FARTHER N ACROSS MICHOACAN AND JALISCO 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VERY ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS AND 
STORM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS WILL AFFECT THE NEAR AND 
OFFSHORE WATERS FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE WATERS OF 
MICHOACAN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NW WITH CARLOS OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. THESE WAVES AND SWELLS WILL CAUSE LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF 
CONDITIONS AND PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IN THE SURF 
ZONE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N103W TO 07N112W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
05N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 115W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 115W AND 121W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1035 MB CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
52N163W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO THE AREA FROM 30N138W TO 
19N114W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND 
W OF 128W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS. 

NORTHERLY SWELL PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ARE 
MAINTAINING SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT OVER THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 
132W AND 138W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT EARLY THIS 
EVENING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE PREVAIL 
OVER THE FORECAST WATERS S OF 02N BETWEEN 123W AND 138W. THE 
SWELL WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COVER 
THE WATERS S OF 02N BETWEEN 131W AND 140W BY TUE AFTERNOON. 

$$
AL