000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140902
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

HURRICANE CARLOS WAS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 100.3W AT 0900 UTC 
MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT 
GUSTS 85 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM SE AND 30 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W. CARLOS IS MOVING 
SLOWLY TO THE N AND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A TURN TO THE NW LATER 
TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK AND RUN 
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS 
OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...PRIMARILY ACROSS OAXACA AND 
GUERRERO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN SPREADING FARTHER 
NW TO INCLUDE MICHOACAN AND JALISCO THROUGH MONDAY. VERY ROUGH 
SEAS AND STORM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS WILL AFFECT THE 
NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE 
WATERS OF MICHOACAN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NW WITH CARLOS OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE WAVES AND SWELLS WILL CAUSE LARGE AND 
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING RIP 
CURRENTS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N105W TO 5N115W. ITCZ FROM 5N115W TO 
4N120W TO 5N130W TO 5N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SE INTO THE AREA FROM 32N138W TO 15N113W. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES 
OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND W OF 125W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS. 

NORTHERLY SWELLS HAVE PROPAGATED SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST 
AREA. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS N OF 29N 
BETWEEN 130W AND 134W. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND FALL BELOW 8 
FT LATER TODAY.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE PREVAIL 
OVER THE FORECAST WATERS S OF 01N BETWEEN 116W AND 125W. SEAS 8 
FT OR GREATER WILL GENERALLY REMAIN S OF 02N BUT WILL SPREAD 
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
DGS