000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140246
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

HURRICANE CARLOS WAS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 100.1W AT 0300 UTC 
MOVING NNW OR 345 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT 
GUSTS 90 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM SE AND 30 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W. CARLOS IS MOVING 
SLOWLY TO THE N AND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A TURN TO THE NW LATER 
TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK AND 
RUN PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER 
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...PRIMARILY ACROSS 
OAXACA AND GUERRERO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN 
SPREADING FARTHER NW TO INCLUDE MICHOACAN AND JALISCO THROUGH 
MONDAY. VERY ROUGH SEAS AND STORM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS 
WILL AFFECT THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS FROM THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO THE WATERS OF MICHOACAN THIS EVENING AND 
GRADUALLY SHIFT NW WITH CARLOS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE 
WAVES AND SWELLS WILL CAUSE LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS 
AND PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N105W TO 05N114W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
04N120W TO 07N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 128W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1039 MB CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
52N155W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 30N138W TO 
15N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N 
OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND W OF 125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL 
REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS. 

GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAVE 
GENERATED A NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH HAS PROPAGATED SOUTHWARD INTO 
THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER PREVAIL OVER THE 
WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE 
AND FALL BELOW 8 FT ON SUN.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE PREVAIL 
OVER THE FORECAST WATERS S OF 01N BETWEEN 116W AND 125W. SEAS 8 
FT OR GREATER WILL GENERALLY REMAIN S OF 02N BUT WILL SPREAD 
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
AL