000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131608
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE CARLOS WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 
100.2W AT 1500 UTC MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 986 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NORTH 
TO NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM HAS 
DECREASED MODESTLY OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER 
HAVE COOLED. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM 
ALL BUT NW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE...175 NM SW AND 
150 NM NW QUADRANTS. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED OCCURRING IN AN ARCHING 150 NM WIDE 
BAND FROM 150 TO 330 NM OF CENTER ACROSS SE SEMICIRCLE. AFTER 
DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...CARLOS HAS BEGUN A MOVEMENT 
TO THE NW...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK AND RUN 
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS 
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF 
MEXICO...PRIMARILY ACROSS OAXACA AND GUERRERO DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...AND THEN FARTHER NW FROM MICHOACAN TO JALISCO THROUGH 
MONDAY. VERY ROUGH SEAS AND STORM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS 
WILL AFFECT THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS FROM THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO THE WATERS OF MICHOACAN THIS AFTERNOON AND 
GRADUALLY SHIFT NW WITH CARLOS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE 
WAVES AND SWELLS WILL CAUSE LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS 
AND PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N101W TO 09.5N111W TO 05N115W... 
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 02N121W TO 
07.5N130W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 
09.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 129.5W AND 132.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 78W AND 
96W...AND FROM 06.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 79W AND 89W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG HIGH PRES CONTINUES WILL NW OF THE AREA ACROSS THE FAR NE 
PACIFIC AND EXTENDS A RIDGE S-SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 30N136W 
TO 20N118W.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N 
OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND W OF 125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL 
REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS. SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO WAS PRODUCING 
FRESH N-NW WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA S OF PUNTA EUGENIA...WHERE SEAS HAD BUILT TO 5-7 FT. 
THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO 
DAYTIME HEATING AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF SEAS 7-
8 FT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAVE 
GENERATED A NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO 
THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH THE 
NORTHERN WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 129W AND 135W THIS AFTERNOON 
AND N OF 29N BETWEEN 128W AND 138W BY SUN EVENING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE WILL 
PROPAGATE INTO THE FORECAST WATERS...GENERALLY S OF 03N BETWEEN 
112W AND 138W...THROUGH SUN. 

$$ STRIPLING