000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130236
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 100.1W AT 0300 UTC 
MOVING NE AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 
92W AND 102W. CARLOS IS FORECAST TO START A MOVEMENT TO THE NW 
PARALLELING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...REACHING HURRICANE 
INTENSITY SUN NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD OVER 
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...PRIMARILY IN THE 
STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE COAST OF 
SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THESE SWELLS COULD 
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N104W TO 04N116W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
08N126W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 123W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES OF 1038 MB CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 49N152W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE S-SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N135W TO 19N110W.  
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND 
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE 
TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS. 

GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS 
GENERATED A NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO 
THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH THE 
NORTHERN WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 129W AND 135W SAT...AND N OF 
29N BETWEEN 128W AND 138W BY SUN EVENING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE WILL 
PROPAGATE INTO THE FORECAST WATERS...GENERALLY S OF 02N BETWEEN 
107W AND 138W...THROUGH SUN. 

$$ 
AL