000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122102
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI JUN 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS NEARLY STATIONARY CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 
100.6W AT 2100 UTC. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM SE AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. 
SCATTERED MODERATE NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 96W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WAS NOTED 
ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W. CARLOS IS 
FORECAST TO START A MOVEMENT TO THE NW PARALLELING THE COAST OF 
SOUTHERN MEXICO...REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY SUN. LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF 
MEXICO...PRIMARILY IN THE STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...DURING 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS WILL 
INCREASE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AND THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP 
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N104W TO 06N110W TO 06N117W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS 
TO 08N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES OF 1038 MB CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 49N149W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE S-SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N135W TO 16N110W.  
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE 
TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N. THE PRES 
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND 
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS. 

GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS 
GENERATED A NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO 
THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH THE 
NORTHERN WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 129W AND 135W SAT...AND N OF 
28N BETWEEN 131W AND 137W BY SUN AFTERNOON.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE WILL 
PROPAGATE INTO THE FORECAST WATERS...GENERALLY S OF 02N BETWEEN 
107W AND 138W...TODAY THROUGH SUN. 

$$ 
AL