000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU JUN 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E CENTERED NEAR 13.1N 100.2W AT 0900 
UTC MOVING NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 150 NM SE 
QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM 
LATER TODAY...AND STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE WITHIN 48 HOURS AS 
IT DRIFTS N THEN NW NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELL FROM 
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF 
MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N109W TO 05N116W. ITCZ IS FROM 
05N116W TO 06N124W TO 09N134W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N128W HAS VERY BROAD RIDGING 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N112W. A WEAK PRES GRADIENT IS EVIDENT 
ACROSS WESTERN WATERS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. AS A RESULT 
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE PRESENT WITH SEAS AROUND 4-7 FT.

OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...EXPECT 
RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ACROSS FORECAST 
WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

$$ 
MUNDELL