000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110252
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC THU JUN 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E CENTERED NEAR 12.9N 99.7W AT 11/0300 
UTC OR 230 NM SSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO AND 239 NM S OF 
ACAPULCO MEXICO MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE 
CENTER...EXCEPT 210 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT. THE TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE N AND THEN NNE 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS 
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY THU...AND 
THEN TO A HURRICANE FRI EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD 
SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...PRIMARILY 
IN THE STATES OF OAXACA  AND GUERRERO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. IN ADDITION...SWELL ORIGINATING FROM THE TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND PROPAGATE TOWARD THE 
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO 
THE WEEKEND CREATING HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N109W TO 05N116W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N116W TO 09N133W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM SW OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W 
AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1017 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 27N128W WITH VERY 
BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 20N112W AND TO THE NW 
TO NEAR 30N131W. A WEAK PRES GRADIENT IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE 
WATERS W OF 110W BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. AS A RESULT...TRADES ARE AVERAGING 
ONLY MODERATE WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT.

EXPECT FRESH NW WINDS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA...WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA 
WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS LOCALLY TIGHT.

OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION...EXPECT RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

$$ 
LEWITSKY