000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED JUN 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E CENTERED NEAR 12.4N 
98.7W AT 10/2100 UTC OR 226 NM SSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO 
MOVING NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE N AND 150 NM 
IN THE S SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
150 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 10N98W TO 08N105W. THE TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE N AND THEN   
NNE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS 
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT... AND 
THEN TO A HURRICANE FRI AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD 
SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... 
PRIMARILY IN THE STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N102W TO 05N115W TO 
06N121W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N121W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W 
AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1017 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 26N129W WITH VERY 
BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 20N110W AND TO THE NW 
TO NEAR 30N134W. A WEAK PRES GRADIENT IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE 
WATERS W OF 110W BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. AS A RESULT...TRADES ARE AVERAGING 
ONLY MODERATE WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT.

EXPECT FRESH NW WINDS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA...WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA 
WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS LOCALLY TIGHT.

OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION...EXPECT RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

$$ 
LEWITSKY