000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100241
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED JUN 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

LOW PRESSURE OF 1007 MB CENTERED NEAR 10N96.5W IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE BROADER MONSOON TROUGH CIRCULATION. CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W 
AND 100W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM 
PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N91W TO 10N97W TO 07N108W TO 
08N133W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH 
EXTENDS TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 120W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 123W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
130W AND 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
40N152W EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TO NEAR 
18N110W. THE DISTANCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK RIDGE 
IS PRODUCING A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADES N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 
WATERS. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH FROM 
THE AREA AND THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEAK ENOUGH WHERE WINDS AND 
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. OUTSIDE OF THE AREA MENTIONED IN 
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL 
OVER THE EASTERN WATERS. 

$$ 
AL