000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092105
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE JUN 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

LOW PRESSURE OF 1008 MB CENTERED NEAR 10N96W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE BROADER MONSOON TROUGH CIRCULATION. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO 
THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 101W. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT 
OF THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY 
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N91W TO 09N102W TO 07N111W TO 
10N127W TO 07N135W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO 
ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 06.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 330 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 111W AND 117W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 119W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
129W AND 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
41N149W EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TO NEAR 
19N110W. THE DISTANCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK RIDGE 
IS PRODUCING A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADES N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 
WATERS. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH FROM 
THE AREA AND THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEAK ENOUGH WHERE WINDS AND 
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. OUTSIDE OF THE AREA MENTIONED IN 
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL 
OVER THE EASTERN WATERS. 

$$ 
AL