000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON JUN 8 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA CENTERED NEAR 23.8N 111.5W AT 08/0900 UTC  
MOVING NNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 
KHNC OR PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N 
TO 26N BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. BLANCA IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING DUE TO 
THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLDER SEA 
SURFACE TEMPS...AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 04N MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 
83W AND 90W.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N120W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA ARE BEING SHEARED N 
OF THE CENTER BY SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN 
ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 25N103W. AN TROUGH 
EXTENDS SOUTH FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N129W TO 15N126W. BROAD 
SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE S OF CENTRAL AMERICA ENHANCING DEEP 
LAYER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 08N95W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FOUND 
FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W.

ALTIMETER DATA FROM 0100 UTC SHOWED LARGE AREA OF 8-11 FT SEAS S 
OF MEXICO BETWEEN 90W-105W. A LARGE COMPONENT OF SEA HEIGHTS IS 
SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SWELL...WHICH CAN PRODUCE LARGE 
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... 
ALONG WITH MIXED SWELL GENERATED BY BLANCA THE PAST FEW DAYS.

ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SW MONSOON WINDS INCREASING S OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN POSSIBLE MEDIUM-TERM TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT 
SCENARIO FROM THE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 08N95W THROUGH WED. 
THIS COULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT N OF THE GALAPAGOS 
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TUE.

$$ 
MUNDELL