000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT JUN 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE BLANCA CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 108.9W AT 06/0900 UTC OR 
ABOUT 290 NM W-SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND 365 NM S OF CABO SAN 
LUCAS MEXICO MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 952 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 130 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KHNC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OVER 
SE QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE IS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 210 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF THE 
CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS SPEED HAS INCREASED MAKING BLANCA A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE 
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. BLANCA IS FORECASTED 
TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUN BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 
HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA. A TURN TO N-NW IS FORECAST BY TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK 
BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA LATE SUN. SWELLS GENERATED BY BLANCA ARE CURRENTLY 
AFFECTING THE SW COAST OF MEXICO...THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE 
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT 
CONDITIONS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

THE TROPICAL WAVE IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N129W ALONG 4N134W TO 3N140W. NO 
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 38N138W 
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 25N125W. THE REMNANT 1008 MB 
LOW OF ANDRES IS CENTERED NEAR 19N120W AND IS DRIFTING TO THE 
SE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS HAVE WEAKEN TO FRESH BUT STILL HAVE 
SEAS FROM 8 TO 9 FT NW OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE BY SAT NIGHT WITH THE SEAS SHIFTING E AND 
MERGING WITH BLNACA BY SUN NIGHT.  

THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER 
INTERIOR CALIFORNIA IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WHERE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
SENDING NORTHERLY SWELL INTO THE FAR N/CENTRAL WATERS N OF 29N 
BETWEEN 127W AND 131W. THESE SEAS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATER 
TODAY BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT ARE SHIFTING NORTHWARD AND 
WILL BE MIXING WITH SWELLS FROM BLANCA ACROSS THE SE AND 
S/CENTRAL WATERS. THESE COMBINED SEAS WILL SPREAD TO THE N 
REACHING 15N BY SUN NIGHT. 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 95W/96W BETWEEN 3N-14N WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION W OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE FROM COSTA RICA NEAR 9N84W TO 5N95W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE 
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 101W-106W. 

$$ 
PAW