000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042132 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU JUN 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 04/2100 UTC...HURRICANE BLANCA IS NEAR 12.8N 105.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. HURRICANE BLANCA HAS WEAKENED BUT IS FORECAST TO REINTENSIFY AND REACH 95 KT BY FRI NIGHT. BLANCA SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE N-NW STARTING TODAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY BLANCA ARE AFFECTING THE SW COAST OF MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD N INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR STARTING FRI MORNING. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD N ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO EARLY SAT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/MIATCMEP2 AND WTPZ42/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AT 04/2100 UTC...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 124.2W AND MOVING E OR 95 DEG AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ANDRES HAS JUST BEEN DOWNGRADED AND THE LAST TROPICAL BULLETIN HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM IS KEEPING THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NE...CURRENTLY FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W. ANDRES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR ANDRES TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES...AS WELL AS LONG-PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL...ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...BUT THEY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA ON FRI AND SAT. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS... BASED ON THE PAST FEW DAYS OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W N OF 05N. THE WAVE IS MOVING EXTREMELY SLOW AS THERE IS LITTLE STEERING CURRENT DUE TO HURRICANE BLANCA. THE CONVERGENCE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING WAVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08.5N135W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N136W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 26N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PRIMARILY W OF 135W. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HURRICANE BLANCA MOVES ON A NW TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS FROM EXCEEDING A FRESH BREEZE THROUGH SAT MORNING. A DEVELOPING GALE N OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW UNITED STATES WILL GENERATE A NORTHERLY SWELL. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. SWELLS WILL PEAK NEAR 9 FT N OF 29N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W BY SAT MORNING. $$ FORMOSA