000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040948 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUN 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 04/0900 UTC...HURRICANE BLANCA WAS NEAR 11.9N 104.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SW OR 215 DEG AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 950 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 330 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 270 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. BLANCA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. BLANCA SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE N-NW STARTING TODAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY BLANCA HAVE REACHED THE SW COAST OF MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD N INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA STARTING FRI MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD N ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO EARLY SAT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/MIATCMEP2 AND WTPZ42/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AT 04/0900 UTC...TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 20.2N 124.9W AND MOVING NE OR 045 DEG AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS MAINLY DISPLACED NE OF CENTER FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 120W-125W. ANDRES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 24 CELSIUS AND IN AN AREA OF HASH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ANDRES TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY FRI. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TAKE A TURN TO THE SE LATER TODAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES...AS WELL AS LONG-PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL...ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...BUT THEY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA ON FRI AND SAT. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS TO THE N OF 06N ALONG 93W AND HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W AROUND 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-13N AND FROM 00N TO A LINE FROM 14N84W TO 10N93W BETWEEN 84W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE WAS ALSO FOUND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE N OF 13N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BROADER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... OUTSIDE OF THE FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE...WINDS ARE LIGHT IN THE TYPICAL AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. NO MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ WAS ANALYZED. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PINCH OFF A LOW ALOFT AS IT REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT MORNING. DEEPENING TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BUTT AGAINST A RELATIVELY STATIONARY 1027 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 37N137W...GENERATING WINDS TO GALE FORCE WELL N OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL SEND N SWELL S OF 30N...WITH 7-9 FT SEAS EXPECTED N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W-135W FROM EARLY FRI THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N AND THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO THE S IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PRIMARILY W OF 135W. THESE WINDS WERE CAPTURED BY THE 0556 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DISPLACED TO THE N BY ANDRES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL PREVENT TRADE WINDS FROM EXCEEDING A FRESH BREEZE THROUGH SAT MORNING. SEAS OVER 8 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND SW SWELL HAVE MERGED WITH THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH ANDRES. $$ SCHAUER