000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC THU JUN 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY  
THROUGH 0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 04/0300 UTC...HURRICANE BLANCA IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 104.7W 
MOVING S-SW OR 200 DEG AT 1 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 943 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 120 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 145 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
07N-15N BETWEEN 100W-108W. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF BLANCA IS 
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS 
EXPECTED TONIGHT...THEN BLANCA SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY 
ACCELERATE TO THE N-NW. SWELLS GENERATED BY BLANCA HAVE REACHED 
THE SW COAST OF MEXICO...AND WILL SPREAD N INTO THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA STARTING 
THU NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD N ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO FRI. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE 
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER TO 
LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP2/MIATCMEP2 AND WTPZ42/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

AT 04/0300 UTC...TROPICAL STORM ANDRES IS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 
125.2W AND MOVING N OR 10 DEG AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM NE 
QUADRANT OF CENTER. ANDRES IS MOVING ACROSS INCREASING COOLER 
SEA SURFACE WATERS AND IS ENTRAINING DRY AIR. THE FORECAST CALLS 
FOR ANDRES TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY FRI. THE SYSTEM WILL 
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT BEFORE TAKING A TURN TO THE 
E-NE. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF 
THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS 
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT 
CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS. 
 
...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS TO THE N OF 07N ALONG 92W AND HAS BEEN 
PROGRESSING W AROUND 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER GUATEMALA N 
OF 13N BETWEEN 88W-92W...WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 80W 
AND 88W AS WELL AS SE OF THE WAVE FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 84W-91W. 
THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE 
BROADER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA LATER IN THE WEEK. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FROM 10N128W TO 09N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N137W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 25N117W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF 
FRESH TRADE WINDS PRIMARILY W OF 135W. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE 
SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP TRADE 
WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS OVER 8 
FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND SW SWELL HAVE MERGED 
WITH THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH ANDRES. 

LONG-PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS AFFECTING THE ENTIRE 
PACIFIC COAST FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SOUTHWARD. THIS SWELL IS 
MIXING WITH SWELLS FROM ANDRES AND BLANCA ALONG THE COAST OF 
MEXICO. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE ALONG THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI. 
 
$$ 
FORMOSA