000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022158 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE JUN 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 02/2100 UTC...HURRICANE ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 123.9W...OR ABOUT 840 MI...1465 KM...WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 60 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. ANDRES IS MOVING ACROSS INCREASING COOLER SEA SURFACE WATERS AND IS ENTRAINING DRY AIR...THUS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT AND FURTHER WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY FRI. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AT 02/2100 UTC...UPGRADED HURRICANE BLANCA WAS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 13.1N 104.6W...OR ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM...SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AND ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER AND SURROUNDED BY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER MAINLY IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY EARLY THU. LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN BLANCA SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK SLOWLY NW IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE N. SWELLS GENERATED BY BLANCA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 97-105W ON THU...THEN SPREAD N INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON FRI...AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD N ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON SAT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/MIATCMEP2 AND WTPZ42/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS TO THE N OF 06N ALONG 85W AND HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AND LIKELY LOSE IDENTITY WITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE BLANCA IMMEDIATELY TO THE W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SW OF HURRICANE ANDRES FROM 09N132W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH W OF 134W. A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA INTO ECUADOR. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING N OF 03N WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF 04N88W...WITHIN AREA FROM 01-14N BETWEEN 94-100W...AND WITHIN 180 NM OF 12N116W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N133W TO A BASE NEAR 27N135W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS EXTENDS S ACROSS EXTREME NW MEXICO TO SOUTHERN BAJA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES ARE NOTED OVER HURRICANE ANDRES AND IN THE VICINITY OF HURRICANE BLANCA. THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR DRY N OF 24N WHILE THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONES AND OTHER AREAS OF TROPICAL CONVECTION IS ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 94-122W AND WELL AS ADVECTED N AND E ACROSS MEXICO S OF A LINE FROM 25N108W TO 21N91W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 05N87W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AND S AMERICA AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE WED WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. $$ COBB