000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310941 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 117.4W AT 31/0900 UTC MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN 110W-116W. ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO TURN W-NW TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE N STRENGTHENS. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS...DIPPING BELOW HURRICANE FORCE BY EARLY TUE MORNING. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES ARE REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND PUNTA EUGENIA AND ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY...WITH 6-8 FT SEAS FOUND IN THIS AREA. THE BROAD AREA OF SWELL RELATED TO ANDRES WILL ENVELOP MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/ FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N102W THROUGH LOW PRES NEAR 12N 102W 1008 MB TO 10N101W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FOUND WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE AND S QUADRANTS. THE 0442 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW AROUND 5 KT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANDRES WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM MON ONWARD. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED NEAR 06N92W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED NEAR THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MON MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 11N119W TO 07N126W TO 10N137W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 60 NM AND 330 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W-125W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH OVER N CENTRAL WATERS REFLECTS A FRONT AT THE SURFACE FROM 32N133W TO 25N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD...DISSIPATING FROM 32N129W TO 24N140W EARLY MON MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND NEAR THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N140W IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH NE-E TRADES WITHIN 360 NM N QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS WERE CAPTURED BY THE 0718 UTC ASCAT AND 0416 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASSES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONT INFRINGES UPON IT FROM THE W TODAY...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD FROM THE W BY MON AS THE FRONT TO THE N DISSIPATES. AT THE SAME TIME... THE LOW WILL LINGER NEAR THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE AREA. STRENGTHENING TRADES NEAR THE LOW SHOULD LIE PRIMARILY W OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF FRESH WINDS FOUND OVER W WATERS BY TUE MORNING. A NEW BATCH OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE EQUATOR OVER CENTRAL WATERS LATER TODAY. PERIODS LIE IN THE 19- 21 SECOND RANGE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL TRAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN WATERS S OF 08N BETWEEN 107W-124W BY EARLY MON MORNING. SEAS OVER 8 FT WILL THEN CONTRACT TO THE S OF 04N THROUGH TUE MORNING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER NE MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE BOTH TO THE S IN THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TO THE E ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL TROUGHING MOVING W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE HELP OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS TO 7-9 FT. $$ SCHAUER