000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310252 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE ANDRES IS CENTERED NEAR 15.1N 116.8W AT 31/0300 UTC MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 75 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W. A FEEDING BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN AROUND 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N114W TO 06N120W TO 05N124W. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY LATE TUE AS IT MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES ARE REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND LOS CABOS AND ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUN...BRINGING ENHANCED SURF CONDITIONS TO THOSE COASTS. A BROAD AREA OF SWELL RELATED TO ANDRES WILL ENVELOP MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/ FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N TO 17N ALONG 101W/102W. THE WAVE IS SLOWING AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ANDRES. A WEAK LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 97W AND 99W. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING INTENSIFICATION OF THIS LOW...BUT THEY ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN...THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HIGHLY LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO REACH 13N104W BY SUN EVENING AND NEAR 14N105W BY MON EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER BY MON EVENING. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED NEAR 07N92W. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND NOW MORE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY W-NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS... INHIBITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N118W TO 07N125W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N139W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 133W. ...DISCUSSION... HURRICANE ANDRES WILL PASS ABOUT 240 NM SW OF CLARION ISLAND TONIGHT. THE ISLAND COULD EXPERIENCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OF 12-14 FT. THE APPROACH OF ANDRES WILL WEAKEN AND DISPLACE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A FAIRLY LIGHT WIND REGIME FOR THE PACIFIC WATERS E OF 120W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH LOWER PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS TO 7-8 FT. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS OF 25-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY MON MORNING. MEANWHILE 15 TO 20 KT GAP WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER THE NW WATERS FROM 30N136W TO 26N140W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM 30N132W TO 24N140W BY SUN MORNING...AND FROM 30N140W TO 24N140W BY SUN EVENING WHILE WEAKENING. $$ GR