000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190246 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE MAY 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N104W TO 05N110W TO 08N119W TO 02N135W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N111W TO 11N118W TO 12N124W...FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 121W AND 140W...AND FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 133W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 48N150W WITH AXIS EXTENDING S-SE TO MID- LEVEL ENERGY NEAR 37N141W. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N128W TO 25N134W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 24N140W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. WHILE A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT IS PRESENT ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...SEAS TO THE NW OF THE FRONT REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 15N ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N125W WITH AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 16N108W WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FT...GENERALLY HIGHER S OF 20N. NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS GENERATING A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE ALONG MOST OF THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION. GIVEN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP...NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY REACH 20- 25 KT OVERNIGHT N OF 25N WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WITHIN THE DEEP TROPICS...A FEW WEAK PERTURBATIONS ARE NOTED WITHIN THE ITCZ REGION W OF 105W...ONE AS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 12N127W TO 04N130W. MOST CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS TO THE S OF 05N. THE OTHER WEAK AREA OF WESTWARD MOVING ENERGY IS NEAR 09N123W AND WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE WESTERN SURFACE TROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DEEP TROPICS...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT EVIDENT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OCCURRING FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N E OF 105W. EARLIER ASCAT DATA INDICATED FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG N TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HOWEVER THIS PULSE HAS LIKELY WEAKENED WITH ANOTHER PULSE ANTICIPATED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 10N TO 11.5N E OF 88W. THE PULSE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER STRONG SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT AND GREATER ALONG THE EQUATORIAL WATERS BY THU MORNING. THIS PULSE OF LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINES OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY LATE FRI...AND COULD BRING ROUGH SEA STATE CONDITIONS TO THOSE AREAS. $$ HUFFMAN