000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141555 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU MAY 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1445 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 07N97W TO 12N116W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N116W TO 06N140W. WITHIN 240 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 97W NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS. WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 116W ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS. WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 125W SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS. WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS W OF 125W SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS. ...DISCUSSION... CONDITIONS ARE QUITE ACTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH PRIMARILY MID-LATITUDE...NOT TROPICAL...FORCING. A VIGOROUS LONG-WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS CENTERED CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA TO NORTHERNMOST BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE SEEN CENTERED NEAR 40N133W DROPS INTO THE TROUGH...THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH A SURFACE LOW TO IMPACT OUR NORTHEASTERNMOST WATERS...BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR NORTHERN BOUNDARY FRIDAY MORNING AND FRESH TO MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM OF THE FRONT. PEAK SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH AROUND 11 FT ION NW SWELL FRIDAY JUST WEST OF BAJA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ON SATURDAY. LONG-PERIOD SWELL ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA EAST OF 130W. TOPEX WAVE HEIGHT MEASUREMENTS HAVE INDICATED THAT THIS IS STRONGER THAN THAT SUGGESTED BY THE GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH MODEL...BUT CLOSER TO THE SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 90W AND 110W AS WELL AS JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. ADDITIONALLY...THIS IS COMBINING WITH LOCAL GAP WIND EVENTS TO PRODUCE SIZABLE WAVES NEAR THE COAST AS DESCRIBED BELOW. THIS LONG-PERIOD SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. THE WIND FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE WAVE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF-BASED WAVEWATCH MODELS WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON THE ECMWF MODEL...AS THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEING SET UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND COLD FRONT IN THE REGION IS LIKELY PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERNMOST GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WILL DIMINISH BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BY FRIDAY NIGHT A NEW...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE GULF AND RENEW THE SOUTHWESTERLIES TO STRONG BREEZE OR NEAR GALE CONDITIONS. THESE TOO WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AND DIMINISH BY SATURDAY. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURES SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE HELPING TO FUNNEL WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS TODAY. AN 0816Z RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED PEAK WINDS OF 30 KT NORTHERLIES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WIND WAVE FROM THESE NORTHERLIES ARE INTERACTING WITH THE EARLIER MENTIONED LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TO CAUSE PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 FT IN THE GULF. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THESE GAPS WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACCOMPANIED WITH LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALSO PRODUCING A PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT. PEAK WINDS OBSERVED FROM THE SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED STRONG BREEZE EASTERLIES IN THE GULF. WIND WAVES GENERATED ARE INTERACTING WITH THE LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TO CAUSE PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 FT IN THE GULF AND EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 100W. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THESE GAPS WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING AND THE COMBINED SEAS DROP BELOW 8 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE GULF COMBINED WITH LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL IS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO FT JUST DOWNWIND OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS TONIGHT MORNING AS THE SWELL DECAYS AND WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WEAKENING TO MODERATE STRENGTH. $$ LANDSEA