000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120948
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE MAY 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO 05N100W TO 06N124W THEN 
RESUMES FROM 03N137W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND  
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 108W    
AND 116W...AND ALSO WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 118W AND 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS      
FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...AND ALSO FROM 07N TO    
09N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRES AT 1034 MB LOCATED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS NEAR 39N152W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SE THROUGH 32N140W  
TO 21N108W. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERN 
PORTION OF THE ITCZ WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
10N127W TO 04N129W AND THE WESTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM  
09N134W TO 03N135W. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH BOTH OF 
THESE TROUGHS AS IS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER A LARGE AREA OF UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED ONLY MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADES N OF THE TROUGHS AND SW OF THE RIDGE HOWEVER AN 
AREA OF MIXED SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT LINGERS ACROSS THE W 
CENTRAL WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TWO WEAK   
AREAS OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG EACH TROUGH DURING THE    
NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND ANY LINGERING SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL 
BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE LOW CIRCULATIONS BY 48 HOURS.

FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA COAST WRAPPING AROUND POINT CONCEPTION TO SW OF THE 
CHANNEL ISLANDS. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATING FRESH NORTHERLY 
SWELL WHICH WILL REACH ALONG 30N THIS MORNING THROUGH 
AFTERNOON...THEN WILL RETREAT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH 30N THU EVENING WITH LITTLE 
FANFARE. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE BEHIND IT 
THU AFTERNOON WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT 
REACHING ALONG 30N BY THU EVENING.

LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AT 19-22 SECONDS IS PROPAGATING 
ACROSS THE TROPICAL NE PACIFIC WITH THE LEADING EDGE EXPECTED TO 
REACH CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND SURROUNDING AREAS AS WELL AS 
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LONG 
PERIOD SWELL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS SURF AND BEACH 
CONDITIONS ALONG THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS    
LATER TODAY THROUGH WED. SEA HEIGHTS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL 
PROPAGATE TO THE NE WITH THIS SWELL TRAIN BUT WILL REMAIN 
CONFINED TO THE WATERS S OF 06N-07N THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEN  
WILL DECAY TO THE EQUATOR AND SOUTHWARD BY 48 HOURS. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO 
DEVELOP ACROSS NW MEXICO BY LATER TODAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG 
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING N OF 30N LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH BY SUNRISE WED THEN WILL RETURN BY LATE WED NIGHT AS 
THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ONCE AGAIN.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF WILL 
DIMINISH BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN WILL PULSE AGAIN TO 
FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS THROUGH 48 HOURS. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 10 
FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FRESH TO    
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO A LOCALIZED TIGHT 
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO  
8-10 FT BY SUNRISE WED.

$$ 
LEWITSKY