000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110929
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON MAY 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
          
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 05N93W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 05N93W TO 08N111W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 124W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN   
300 NM N AND 180 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 124W.

ALSO....SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM SW OF  
PANAMA BETWEEN 81W AND 83W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM S OF A LINE 
FROM 03N82W TO 04N90W.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRES AT 1035 MB LOCATED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS NEAR 38N147W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 32N134W TO 
20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ 
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL 
WATERS...ALONG WITH MIXED SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8-11 FT. THIS 
SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AND SHRINK IN COVERAGE THROUGH 48 
HOURS. MEANWHILE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATES WEAK LOW 
PRES FORMING ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 06N136W BY 24 HOURS...MOVING TO 
08N137W BY 48 HOURS. THE GFS SHOWS STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER 
SEAS AS A RESULT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. A BLEND OF THESE 
SOLUTIONS WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST.

FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE 
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST LATER TODAY WRAPPING AROUND POINT 
CONCEPTION TO SW OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO TUE. THESE 
WINDS WILL GENERATE FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH WILL MANAGE TO 
SLIP SOUTHWARD TO 29N BETWEEN 119W AND 124W BY SUNRISE TUE...
LINGERING INTO EARLY WED.
 
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AT 18-21 SECONDS IS PROPAGATING 
ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICAL WATERS S OF 03N W OF 84W WITH 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8-11 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SW 
SWELL SET WILL REACH THE SW COAST OF MEXICO INCLUDING CABO 
CORRIENTES AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUE 
AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
OVERNIGHT TUE INTO EARLY WED. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL LIKELY 
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICAN COASTS ONCE IT ARRIVES.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO 
DEVELOP ACROSS NW MEXICO BY LATE TUE WITH FRESH TO STRONG 
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 
29N/30N TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 
FT BY LATE TUE NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSATE TO FRESH 
TO STRONG LEVELS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT DOWNWIND 
OF THE GULF BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 8 FT BY WED MORNING 
DUE TO A LOCALIZED TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

GULF OF PANAMA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS 
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THESE WINDS 
COMBINED WITH THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE 
WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT BY LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$ 
LEWITSKY