000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110224 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON MAY 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 06N93W AND EXTENDS W TO 08N104W THEN TURNS SW TO 04N136W...THEN NW TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 05N125W TO 07N140W. A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER COLOMBIA AT 09N74W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 07N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N80W TO 07N89W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N134W TO 22N140W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 97-107W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS AT 08N117W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW THROUGH TO BEYOND 32N119W AND SEPARATES THE TWO CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO BEYOND 10N140W...AND ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 116-140W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO A CREST NEAR 06N92W...AND FINALLY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS NNE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO TO A CREST OVER S- CENTRAL GEORGIA. ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N AND MERGES WITH A DENSE TROPICAL PLUME ORIGINATING IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...ALL CONCENTRATING INTO A PLUME THAT CONTINUES E WITHIN 480 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N127W TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO ACROSS W PANAMA TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 06N85W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING SW OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 15N105W. THE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING 20-25 KT NE TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08-12N BETWEEN 130-140W. THE ASSOCIATED NE SWELL IS MIXING SEVERAL OTHER LONG PERIOD SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 05- 19N W OF 115W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE ON MON. THE ENHANCED SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT ON TUE. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AT 15-17 SECONDS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 05N BETWEEN 90-140W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT. THESE SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL SPREAD N REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA ON TUE AND WED AT 16-20 SECONDS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE INDICATES NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER AND JUST SW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. $$ NELSON