000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101512
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN MAY 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
          
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 08N109W TO 04N120W TO 04N130W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 114W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S AND 90 NM N 
OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...
 
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1034 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 38N149W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 18N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 122W WITH SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE 
IN THIS AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASE 
COVERAGE OF THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. BY TUE MORNING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL SHRINK IN 
COVERAGE TO AN AREA FROM 10N TO 12N W OF 130W. 

LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO CROSS THE EQUATOR INTO 
THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. SEAS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS ARE 
IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE. THE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO 
SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT REACHING AS FAR N 
AS 07N BY TUE MORNING.
  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 25 KT DURING 
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND WILL DIMINISH TO 
AROUND 20 KT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

$$ 
AL