000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092151 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 05N94W TO AND EXTENDS SW TO 03N115W...THEN TURNS NW THROUGH THE BASE OF AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N127W...THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 04N140W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM 04N127W TO 12N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N107W TO 02N119W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N118W TO 07N129W TO 09N138W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 04N134W. A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 09.5N75.5W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS NW COLOMBIA TO BASE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 02N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N78W TO 05N84W TO 02N89W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 20N. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 24N BETWEEN 95-120W. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS OBSERVED N OF 24N ALONG 130W AND SEPARATING THE TWO CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS AT 13N105W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO A CREST AT 10N140W...AND ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 116- 138W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO A CREST NEAR 08N90W. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS NNE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO TO A CREST OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA. ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 12-23N BETWEEN 140- 115W...THEN CONCENTRATES INTO A PLUME THAT CONTINUES E WITHIN 300 NM OF A LINE FROM 18N115W TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO ACROSS PANAMA TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 04N83W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N135W TO 13N91W. THE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING 20-25 KT NE TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 09-18N BETWEEN 115-140W. THE ASSOCIATED NE SWELL IS MIXING SEVERAL OTHER LONG PERIOD SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH SUN WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT ON MON. THE ENHANCED SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT LATE WED. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 05N BETWEEN 90-140W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT. RE- ENFORCING S SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SUN WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT BUILDING ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 10N E OF 110W ON TUE...THEN SUBSIDING FROM THE N ON WED. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE INDICATES NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER AND JUST SW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. $$ NELSON