000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090234 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 05N89W AND EXTENDS SW TO 02N90W...THEN TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 05N126W...THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 04N140W. THE EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM 05N126W TO 10N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N118W TO 03N139W. A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 09.5N75W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS NW COLOMBIA TO BASE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 01N89W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM EXTREME SE CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS AT 14N106W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 13N130W...AND ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 116- 140W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO A CREST NEAR 09N85W. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS NNE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO TO A CREST OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO ACROSS PANAMA TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 06N82W. ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 390 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N121W TO THE MEXICAN COAST AT 22N105W. SOME OF THE MOISTURE CONTINUES NE FEEDING INTO CONVECTION OVER E TEXAS. SOME OF THE MOISTURE TURNS E AND SE ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EPAC AND MEXICO FROM 16-24N BETWEEN 96-107W. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 33N140W TO 14N102W. THE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING 20-25 KT NE TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 09-18N BETWEEN 117-140W. THE ASSOCIATED NE SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD S AND NW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH SUN WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY MON. THE ENHANCED SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT LATE WED. THE GRADIENT NE OF THIS RIDGE WILL SUPPORT NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SAT. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 01N BETWEEN 100-120W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT. RE- ENFORCING S SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SUN WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT BUILDING ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 07N E OF 120W ON TUE...THEN SUBSIDING FROM THE N ON WED. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE INDICATES NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS OVER AND JUST SW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT AND ON TUE NIGHT. $$ NELSON