000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI MAY 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY  
THROUGH 2145 UTC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
          
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 05N87W AND 
EXTENDS W TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 06N122W...THEN CONTINUES W TO 
BEYOND 05N140W. THE EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM 02N124W TO 
10N118W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
OBSERVED WITHIN 420 NM E OF THE TROUGH AND ALSO WITHIN 240 NM W 
OF THE TROUGH. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N107W TO 10N118W... WITHIN 75 NM OF 
10.5N132W...AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N129W 
TO 09N140W. 

A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA AT
10N75W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS NW COLOMBIA TO BASE 
OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 01N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING ALONG THE TROUGH WITHIN 60 
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N77W TO 02N83W TO 02N90W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT 33N116W 
TO 20N127W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS AT 
14N104W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT   
13N130W...AND ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110-
140W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO A 
CREST NEAR 10N86W. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS NNE ACROSS EASTERN 
MEXICO TO A CREST OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AN UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS S ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 
ACROSS PANAMA TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 
05N83W. ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 390 NM OF A 
LINE FROM 13N121W TO THE MEXICAN COAST AT 22N105W. SOME OF THE 
MOISTURE CONTINUES NE FEEDING INTO CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN 
TEXAS. SOME OF THE MOISTURE TURNS E AND SE ACROSS THE UPPER 
RIDGE OVER THE EPAC AND MEXICO FROM 16-22N BETWEEN 95-107W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 33N140W 
TO 13N93W. THE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING 20-25 KT 
NE TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 09-18N BETWEEN 120-140W. THE 
ASSOCIATED NE SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD S AND NW SWELL 
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL 
GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH SUN WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHED TO 15-20 
KT BY EARLY MON. THE ENHANCED SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT LATE WED. THE GRADIENT NE OF THIS RIDGE WILL 
SUPPORT NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SAT.
 
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICS S 
OF 02N BETWEEN 100-130W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT. RE-
ENFORCING S SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SUN WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT 
BUILDING ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 07N E OF 120W ON 
TUE...THEN SUBSIDING FROM THE N ON WED.
  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE INDICATES NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS OVER 
AND JUST SW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT AND ON TUE NIGHT.

$$ 
NELSON