000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072148 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU MAY 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 03.5N85W AND EXTENDS W TO 04N101W...THEN TERMINATES AT AN EMBEDDED TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 07N115W TO 13N114W. THE ITCZ RESUMES SW OF THE TROUGH NEAR 05N119W...AND EXTENDS NW THROUGH ANOTHER EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 10N134W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 06N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N79W TO 01N90W TO 00N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 0TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THE EASTERNMOST 6N102W TO 11N115W TO 10N128W TO 03N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT 34N119W TO 20N130W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS AT 14N105W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 10N134W...AND ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE E ANTICYCLONE TO A CREST NEAR 10.5N81W. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO TO A CREST OVER THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO ACROSS PANAMA TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 06N82W. ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 360 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N119W TO OVER N-CENTRAL MEXICO AT 24N102W. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 33N138W TO 15N100W. A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 06N135W TO 13N132W WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT CROSSES 140W ON FRI. THE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING 20-25 KT NE TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 09-20N BETWEEN 120-140W. THE ASSOCIATED NE SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD S AND NW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT ON SUN. THE ENHANCED SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT LATE TUE. FRESH NW-N WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS NE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH FRI EVENING THEN DIMINISH TO MODERATE BREEZE. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS BEEN MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL MAINTAINING 7-9 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE. THE NW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH 5-7 FT SEAS EXPECTED N OF THE RIDGE LATE SAT. ANOTHER BATCH OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS PROPAGATED INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS S OF 02N BETWEEN 100-130W IN THE FORM OF 7-9 FT COMBINED SEAS. RE-ENFORCING S SWELL WILL ARRIVE SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT BUILDING S OF 10N E OF 120W ON MON NIGHT AND TUE...THEN SUBSIDING FROM THE N ON WED. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY ALONG A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND FRI... AND MOVE E OVER EXTREME NW MEXICO ON FRI NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT S-SW 20-25 KT PULSES WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE LIMITED FETCH SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO A MAXIMUM OF 7 FT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE GRADIENT NE OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL SUPPORT NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON FRI EVENING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE INDICATES NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS OVER AND JUST SW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT. $$ NELSON