000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU MAY 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
          
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N87W TO 06N100W TO 08N114W TO 
06N120W TO 07N132W TO BEYOND 05N140W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 112W AND 
115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W...AND FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 132W 
AND 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM 04N 
TO 07N BETWEEN 108W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N123W TO 26N130W. A BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH AND DOMINATES MUCH 
OF DISCUSSION AREA E OF 120W...INCLUDING CENTRAL AND SE MEXICO 
WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 12N109W. A 90 KT 
JETSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM 25N120W ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO.  
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS 
HELPING TO SUPPORT THE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 12N113W TO 07N114W.

THE HIGH PRES NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS BECOME STRONGER AND 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED...LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADE WINDS FROM 11N TO 16N W OF 125W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES SHOWED SEAS 
TO NEAR 12 FT WITHIN THE AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS AS RESIDUAL NW 
SWELL COMBINES WITH THE WIND WAVES. 

FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN PART 
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT. 
THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 
THEN BY FRI NIGHT...PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN 
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO 
RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS JUST OFF THE COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-
25 KT AND SEAS OF 6-7 FT WITHIN AROUND 90 NM OF THE COAST. 
 
SWELLS GENERATED BY GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA 
ARE AFFECTING THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W 
WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT. THIS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 
FT EARLY SAT MORNING.

$$ 
GR