000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN MAY 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 05N82W TO 05N100W TO 08N110W TO 
08N115W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 09N128W TO 08N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 01N TO 06N E OF 81W...FROM 01N 
TO 03N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W...FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 88W AND 
91W...FROM 00N TO 02N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 112W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 132W AND 134W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 120W FROM 01N TO 11N. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 05N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 116W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...    

LARGE SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL CONTINUES TO SPREAD N AND NE 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...AND HAS REACHED THE OFFSHORE 
WATERS OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. MORNING ALTIMETER PASSES 
MEASURED SEAS 9 TO 14 FEET W THROUGH SW OF THE GALAPAGOS 
ISLANDS. SEAS ACROSS THE COLOMBIAN COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN 
REACHING 8 FEET. THIS LARGE AND VERY STRONG SWELL WILL CONTINUE 
TO PROPAGATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FOR THE REST OF 
THE DAY TODAY...AFFECTING THE ENTIRE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 
132W. SIGNIFICANT SWELL ALSO WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7 TO 
10 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THESE LARGE VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL 
GENERATE VERY LARGE SURF AND DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG 
THE REGIONAL COASTS AND WITHIN THE SURFZONE FOR THE REST OF THE 
DAY TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N127W TO 27N131W BEYOND 
23N140W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY...AND BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...COVER THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 27N110W 22N128W 15N140W. 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N113W. 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS 
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 27N110W 15N140W LINE FOR 
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH TO 30N140W TO 23N130W AND TO 
20N109W.
 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...

20 TO 30 KNOT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 30 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 13.5N96.5W TO 14.5N95.5W TO 16N95W. 
THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS 
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN DISSIPATE. 

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...

20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST WINDS ARE PULSING THROUGH THE AREA THAT 
COVERS FROM 10N TO 11N FROM 88W EASTWARD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL 
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN DISSIPATE.

$$
MT