000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020914
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT MAY 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 3N83W TO 1008 MB LOW 8N115W TO 6N140W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 220 NM N OF AXIS 
FROM 109W-116W BETWEEN 80W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 116W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...    

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N133W TO 28N140W. A MOSTLY 
ZONAL FLOW WITH A 115-120 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDING FROM 23N140W TO 
25N118W WHERE WINDS DECREASE TO 95-100 KT CONTINUING INTO 
CENTRAL MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS N OF 17N W OF 115W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
12N112W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 110W-117W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 120W. NLY SWELL 8-10 FT IS 
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. NLY WINDS 20-30 KT WILL 
CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE 
NEXT 36 HOURS. OTHERWISE SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL 
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS