000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220233
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED APR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N97W TO 09N110W TO 06N125W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 120W...WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
124W AND 134W...AND ALSO WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 126W.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N86W TO 03N95W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM SE OF THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION... 

A SURFACE TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS 
EXTENDING FROM 30N122W TO 25N130W. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE 
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST NW-N OF 
THE DISCUSSION WATERS. AN AREA OF NW SWELL IS OUTRUNNING THIS 
FRONT WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT COVERING THE WATERS N OF A LINE FROM 
30N126W TO 27N128W TO 20N138W TO 20N140W. THIS SWELL WILL 
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE E-SE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFF OF THE U.S. 
CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL SEND FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL  
SOUTHWARD MIXING WITH THE NW SWELL BY 48 HOURS WHICH WILL   
BUILD COMBINED SEAS UP TO 12 FT NEAR 30N125W BY EARLY THU.

BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS IN PLACE FROM 30N140W TO 22N130W TO 
21N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT S-SW OF THIS RIDGE AND TO THE N 
OF THE ITCZ WHERE LOWER PRESSURES ARE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN 
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES FROM 09N TO 15N W OF 136W AS 
INDICATED BY A RECENT RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. A RECENT 
ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS MEASURED A SURROUNDING AREA OF 8-10 FT 
SEAS OVER THE FAR W CENTRAL WATERS. THE TRADES AND SWELL WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE FAR NW 
CORNER OF THE GULF AND AN EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS 
MEASURED FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS N OF 30N E OF THE TROUGH. 
THIS TROUGHING WILL WEAKEN THEN RE-STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NEXT 
48 HOURS WITH THE FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PULSING EACH 
DAY IN RESPONSE. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 8 FT JUST E OF THE 
TROUGH DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS.
 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 15-20 
KT ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TONIGHT...AND THEN 
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20-25 KT WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING WHEN 
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-8 FT.

$$
LEWITSKY