000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161506
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N103W TO 02N125W TO 00N139W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. 

LOW PRESSURE AT 1010 MB IS NEAR 04.5N92.5W 1010 MB WITH A TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM 08N85W TO THE LOW TO 03N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 
80W AND 84W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W...AND ALSO 
FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT 
OF THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ALSO...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 130W UNDER AN 
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION... 

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS 
FROM 32N136W TO 20N120W TO 14N100W. MEANWHILE TROUGHING EXTENDS 
ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THESE TWO FEATURES IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY 
STRONG NW-N WINDS OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE 
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH 
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE-S INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS   
N OF 24N W OF 117W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL      
THEN GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE 
WEEKEND.

FRESH TRADE WINDS OCCURRING SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE SUPPORTING 
AN AREA OF 8-11 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS AS 
MEASURED BY RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY 
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING 
FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH AND THUS THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN 
GULF AREA YESTERDAY AND HAS SINCE EXITED TO THE E ACROSS 
NORTHERN MEXICO. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS WHICH WILL BE 
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT 
AND VARIABLE IN THE GULF N OF 29N BY FRI AS TROUGHING EXTENDS 
SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS OF 2 FT  
OR LESS. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE NW-N WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN 
GULF...LOCALLY TO FRESH TODAY. SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3-5 
FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 FT 
OR LESS BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

E OF 110W...WINDS WILL MANAGE TO PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH 
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULFS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PANAMA...EXCEPT PULSING TO 15 KT 
JUST S OF THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY