000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142114
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE APR 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE PRIMARY ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 03N96W TO 02N110W TO 03N120W TO 
05N133W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. THE SECONDARY ITCZ 
IS FROM 02S101W TO 02N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 108W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 
09N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
09N TO 11N BETWEEN 116W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OF 1036 MB LOCATED NEAR 38N136W EXTENDS  
A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SE THROUGH 32N128W TO 20N110W. A TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA COASTS WHERE GALE WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. 
THESE WINDS ARE GENERATING FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH IS 
MANAGING TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS      
N OF 25N BETWEEN 118W AND 127W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE TO THE S THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS SNEAKING INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING WHICH 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT.

FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTING 
AN AREA OF 8-9 FT COMBINED SEAS FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 127W AND 
134W. THESE TRADES WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO STRONG LEVELS 
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE SINK SLIGHTLY TO THE SE-S. THE 
TRADES WILL THEN DIMINISH BACK TO FRESH LEVELS WED AND WED NIGHT 
WHILE ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8-10 FT LINGER INTO THU MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS 
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED.   
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT   
OR REMNANT TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF COMMENCING WED     
MORNING AND SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO 28N BY THU MORNING.

E OF 110W...NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL MANAGE TO PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING   
HOURS. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN    
8 FT WILL PREVAIL.

$$
FORMOSA