000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060232 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON APR 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 02S104W TO 02S116W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 01S104W TO 03.4S117W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N87W TO 02N92W THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 06N121W...THEN CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM OF 05.5N86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N109W TO 08N119W TO 07N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING N TO S FROM 32N130W TO 17N140W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SWINGING E THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE N OF 30N AND CONTINUES E ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A DENSE MOISTURE PLUME THAT ORIGINATED EARLIER IN THE DEEP TROPICS...EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITHIN 270 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3N133W TO BEYOND 32N98W OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 10N96W IS BECOMING THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N ACROSS MOST OF MEXICO. UPPER SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE ANTICYCLONE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 06-15N E OF 106W. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION E OF 120W ALONG THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. A NARROW PLUME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION W OF 120W IS BEGINNING TO ADVECT NE AND WILL REINFORCE THE PLUME THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N140W TO 15N105W. THE NORTHERLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES AT 15-20 KT. COMBINED SEAS ARE 7-9 FT IN NW SWELL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 28-32N BETWEEN 115-124W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE MON WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING ORIENTATED FROM 28N140W TO 27N123W TO A CREST NEAR 32N118W. THE FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUE NIGHT. THE POST- FRONTAL NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON WED. THE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING NE TRADES OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE. LONG PERIOD NE...S AND NW SWELL ARE MIXING WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 08-18N BETWEEN 129- 140W. THE NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BRIEFLY TO 20-25 KT ON MON NIGHT ALONG A NARROW LINE FROM 14N132W TO 10N140W. OTHERWISE...THE N AND S SWELL COMPONENTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NE TRADE SWELL BUILDS THE COMBINED SEAS TO 7-8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 115W. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...20-25 KT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT ON MON AFTERNOON. EXPECT A NORTHERLY 20-25 KT DRAINAGE SURGE LATE MON AND TUE NIGHTS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT ENE 20-25 KT NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 09.5-12.5N BETWEEN 86-94W...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. ANOTHER STRONG EVENT IS EXPECTED MON AND TUE NIGHTS. GULF OF PANAMA...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO BRIEFLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND ON MON NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING BRIEFLY TO 8 FT. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 06N OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE NW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE WED. $$ NELSON