000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT APR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY  
THROUGH 2145 UTC. 
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...20-25 KT NORTHERLY FLOW 
WILL INCREASE REACHING 30-35 KT MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS EVENING.
THE GALE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 
FT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY SUN AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NORTHERLY 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING.  
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 05.5S86W TO 03S94W 
TO 04.5S114W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN 
HEMISPHERE ITCZ DEVELOPS NEAR 06N106W AND EXTENDS WSW TO BEYOND 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ITCZ WITHIN 75 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05S85W TO 03S89W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 02S101W TO 04S110W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
NOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N105W TO 07N111W TO 09N115W...AND WITHIN 
30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N119W TO 06N125W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 45 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N82W TO 04N87W. 

...DISCUSSION... 
    
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM 32N121W TO 21N137W. A SECOND  
UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA 
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW THROUGH ANOTHER UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE AT 12N94W TO A CREST OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. A 150 NM 
WIDE BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM 30N138W TO OVER 
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A LARGE UPPER MOISTURE PLUME IS STREAMING 
ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 16-29N 
BETWEEN 120-97W...AND IS REINFORCED BY DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE 
ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED BETWEEN 105-115W.
UPPER SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF
96W AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IS THIS AREA.
 
AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO      
15N97W. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES AT 
15-20 KT...COMBINED SEAS ARE 7-10 FT IN MIXED N AND S SWELL 
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 28-32N BETWEEN 119-127W. THESE 
ENHANCED SEAS WILL PROPAGATE E REACHING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST 
OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ON SUN...THEN SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT 
ON MON. THE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING NE TRADES OF 
15-20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 125W BETWEEN THE ITCZ 
AND THE RIDGE. LONG PERIOD NE...S AND NW SWELL ARE MIXING WITH 
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 06-20N 
BETWEEN 125-140W. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH 
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
   
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE OF ENE 20-25 KT    
WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 09.5-
11N BETWEEN 86-88W...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. STRONGER EVENTS 
ARE FORECAST LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH THE WESTERN 
EXTENT REACHING AS FAR W AS 10N94W. 

GULF OF PANAMA...MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 06N OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 5-7 FT.

$$ 
NELSON