000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022149 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU APR 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N86W TO 04N105W TO 03N128W...THEN RESUMES FROM 04N136W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N89W TO 03N106W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FLARING INTERMITTENTLY TO THE N OF THE ITCZ IN THE AREA FROM 04-14N BETWEEN 100-133W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 05N77W TO 01N81W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 45 NM OF 05.5N79W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER NW COLOMBIA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO A CREST AT 30N125W. TO THE THE SW OF THIS LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TROPICS FROM 19N122W TO 08N121W. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY E OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...BUT A LARGE AREA OF UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 04-27N BETWEEN 122W-110W. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TURNS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUES E ACROSS NW MEXICO. A 180 NM WIDE BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS STREAMING E FROM 30N140W TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO 14N96W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 28-32N BETWEEN 119-129W...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 9-13 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON FRI WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ON FRI EVENING. THE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED SW OF THE RIDGE WITH NE TRADES AT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 18-28N W OF 135W WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS W OF 85W AND MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL...AND ADDITIONALLY MIXING NE TRADE SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS SW OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 29N115W TO 26N115W TO 10N140W. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON FRI AND SAT. HOWEVER SEAS TO 8 FT WILL RETURN ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT ON MON. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE OF ENE 20-25 KT WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING...AND ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT EVENT WILL OCCUR ON SAT AND SUN NIGHTS WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT REACHING NEAR 11N92W AT SUNRISE ON MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. MON NIGHTS EVENT WILL NO BE AS STRONG AS SUN NIGHTS AND TUE NIGHTS EVENT WILL BE MINIMAL AGAIN. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS TO SURGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE FRI NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN. $$ NELSON