000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260218 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU MAR 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY NOT PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 04N89W TO 06N94W TO 04N102W...WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 07N BETWEEN 88W AND 98W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N112W TO BEYOND 06.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S AND 360 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 138W. ...DISCUSSION... A BROAD AND FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 27-28N W OF 100W WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NW PORTION EXTENDING FROM 31N131W TO 14N142W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE UPPER RIDGE N OF 21N OVER N MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM 17.5N94.5W ALONG 05N98W THEN SE TO JUST S OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS NEAR 02S91W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS E PORTIONS. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS W PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING GOOD VENTILATION FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE NEAR THE ITCZ. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 110W... CENTERED ON A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33.5N129W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PROMOTING FRESH NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE N BAJA PENINSULA...WHICH CONTINUES TO GENERATE MODERATE N-NW WIND SWELL SPREADING SE ACROSS THE WATERS OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA....WHERE SEAS REMAIN 7-10 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THERE THROUGH FRI BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AS NEW HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA THU EVENING...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY SE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT MORNING. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL S OF 20N AND W OF 120W DUE TO THE MODEST PRES GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THERE THROUGH FRI BEFORE THE NEW HIGH PRES CENTER ALSO BEGINS TO FRESHEN THE TRADEWINDS ACROSS SW PORTIONS LATE FRI INTO SAT. ELSEWHERE...THE ENTIRE AREA IS VOID OF STRONG WINDS. TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL SPILL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AGAIN TONIGHT TO PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 20 KT ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IS SPREADING NE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL REACH THE PACIFIC COASTLINES THIS EVENING...AND INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY TO PRODUCE STRONG AND POWERFUL SURF ALONG LOCAL REEFS AND BEACHES...AND GENERATE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. THIS SW SWELL WILL DOMINATE SEAS ACROSS THESE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SPREAD E OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND INTO THE PACIFIC COASTS OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THU AND REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI MORNING. THIS STRONG PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI AFTERNOON...REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI EVENING. $$ STRIPLING