000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252210
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED MAR 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
A MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY NOT PRESENT ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 
00N93.5W TO 05N96W TO 04.5N110W...WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 02N TO 06.5N BETWEEN 
90W AND 102W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N115W TO 07N125W TO BEYOND 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM S AND 300 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 138W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A BROAD AND FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 29-30N W OF 
100W WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING 
THROUGH THE NW PORTION EXTENDING FROM 30N130W TO 20N142W. A 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE UPPER RIDGE N OF 21N OVER 
NW MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 17.5N94.5W ALONG 05N98W THEN SE TO JUST S OF THE GALAPAGOS 
ISLANDS NEAR 02N91W. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS W PORTION 
OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING GOOD VENTILATION FOR CONVECTION 
DESCRIBED ABOVE NEAR THE ITCZ.
 
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 
110W...CENTERED ON A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33.5N129W. THE UPPER 
TROUGH S OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE 
TROUGH ACROSS E PORTIONS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH 
AND LOWER PRES ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PROMOTING FRESH NW 
WINDS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE N BAJA 
PENINSULA...WHICH CONTINUES TO GENERATE MODERATE NNW WIND SWELL 
SPREADING SE ACROSS THE WATERS OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA....WHERE 
SEAS REMAIN 7-10 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THERE 
THROUGH FRI BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AS NEW HIGH PRES BUILDS 
ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS 
GENERALLY PREVAIL S OF 20N AND W OF 120W DUE TO THE MODEST PRES 
GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THERE THROUGH 
FRI BEFORE THE SAME NEW HIGH PRES CENTER ALSO BEGINS TO FRESHEN 
THE TRADEWINDS ACROSS SW PORTIONS LATE FRI INTO SAT.

ELSEWHERE...THE ENTIRE AREA IS VOID OF STRONG WINDS. TRADEWINDS 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL SPILL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AGAIN 
TONIGHT TO PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 20 KT ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL 
IS SPREADING NE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL 
REACH THE PACIFIC COASTLINES THIS EVENING...AND INCREASE THROUGH 
FRIDAY TO PRODUCE STRONG AND POWERFUL SURF ALONG LOCAL REEFS AND 
BEACHES...AND GENERATE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. THIS SW SWELL 
WILL DOMINATE SEAS ACROSS THESE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS AND SPREAD E OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND INTO THE 
PACIFIC COASTS OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. 

$$ 
STRIPLING