000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250240
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED MAR 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 04.5N94W 1010 MB TO 
04N101W TO 03N108W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING 
ON TO 06N126W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32.5N129W AND 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 15N108W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER 
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS OFF 
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OUTWARD TO 118W. ASSOCIATED 
NORTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE FOUND N OF 24N BETWEEN 
114W AND 124W. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE NW 
SWELL THROUGH WED BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO FADE. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ 
TO NEAR 23N AND W OF 120W. NE WINDS WAVES ARE COMBINING WITH NW 
SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS 7 TO 9 FT FROM 08N TO 18N 
W OF 122W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEAKEN...WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT AND DIMINISH TRADES OVER THESE WESTERN WATERS. THIS 
WILL DECREASE THE NE WIND WAVES WHILE THE NW SWELL SUBSIDES. AS 
A RESULT...COMBINED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY THU MORNING. 
 
ELSEWHERE EAST OF 110W... LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY 
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GAP WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
TONIGHT TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULFS OF 
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. OTHERWISE...FADING LONG PERIOD S SWELL 
DOMINATES THE EASTERN TROPICAL WATERS. A STRONG PULSE OF LONG 
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THESE WATERS WED...AND REACH THE 
COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED EVENING...AND RAISE OFFSHORE 
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 6-9 FT N OF THE EQUATOR WED NIGHT AND THU. 

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT 
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE 
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. THIS STRONG 
PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI EVENING.

$$ 
STRIPLING