000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241511
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE MAR 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 04N93W 1013 MB TO 
02N108W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ 
WHICH EXTENDS TO 05N1133W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 126W AND 135W.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N130W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 19N111W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER 
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS OFF 
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY SWELL WITH 
SEAS TO 9 FT ARE CURRENTLY FOUND N OF 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 124W. 
THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE NW SWELL 
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 23N AND W OF 
125W. NE WINDS WAVES COMBINED WITH NW SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS TO 
9 FT FROM 09N TO 19N W OF 131W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. 
THIS WILL DECREASE THE NE WIND WAVES WHILE THE NW SWELL 
SUBSIDES. AS A RESULT...COMBINED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY 
WED EVENING. 
 
GAP WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS HELPING FOR 
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO FORCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. THIS WILL VEER WINDS OVER 
THE SW GULF WATERS AND DIMINISH GAP WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS. AS A RESULT...WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. 

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT 
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE 
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. THIS STRONG 
PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI EVENING.

$$ 
AL